Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-32994909-20180211211233

There's so much argument over whether the Veteran should alert on the first night or not.

Let's break this down.

FIRST: STATISTICAL FACTORS (100% MATH, 0% PLAYER INPUT.)

So, considering the Veteran takes up Town Killing:

Jailor - cannot be killed by the Veteran, hence 0/1 chance.

Town Investigative - Investigator, Lookout & Spy can be killed by the Veteran. Hence this role has a 3/4 chance of being killed by the Veteran N1.

Town Investigative - 3/4.

Town Protective - Both Doctor and Bodyguard can be killed by the Veteran N1. 1/1 chance.

Town Killing - would be the Veteran itself - 0/0 chance.

Town Support - Medium, Retributionist and Mayor cannot visit the Veteran, whilst Escort and Transporter can. 3/5 chance.

Random Town - Investigator, Sheriff, Lookout, Doctor, Bodyguard, Escort and Transporter can visit the Veteran N1, whilst Spy, Vigilante, Mayor, Medium and Retributionist cannot. So this would be a 7/12 chance of visiting the Veteran.

Random Town - 7/12.

Random Town - 7/12.

Godfather - will not visit the Veteran N1 unless Mafioso is jailed or role blocked. 0/1 chance.

Mafioso - can visit the Veteran N1. 1/1 chance.

Random Mafia - All of these roles apart from Forger are likely to visit on the first night, which is a 6/7 chance.

Random Mafia - 6/7. (Both Random Mafia are likely to not simultaneously visit a single player, hence this will be disregarded.)

Neutral Killing - The Serial Killer and the Arsonist can visit the Veteran on the first night, whilst the Werewolf cannot. 2/3 chance.

Neutral Evil - the Witch can visit the Veteran on the first night, whilst the Jester and Executioner cannot, 1/3 chance.

In total.

Chance of townie visiting Veteran N1: 4.85

Chance of evil visiting Veteran N1: 2.85

Chance of Veteran dying if he does not alert: around 3/28. (about 1/10)

Statistically, alerting on the first night has almost double the chance of killing a townie.

Veteran bait will attract only evil roles and Town Protective, but may attract other townies. Hence, it is not a good idea to alert on the first night. 