Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-32994909-20180305211953/@comment-32994909-20180320225027

NoCarbonRequired has gotten the closest answer yet!

ANSWERS

Arguments in support of the Jailor's assumption:

* There was no Medium when the Jailor was dead; the Medium could not have been jailed.


 * The Jailor was not revived for two nights, so there is most likely no Retributionist.


 * Both Random Mafias were most likely taken


 * The first Random Mafia is likely to be taken by Consort, because it is very rare an Escort would role block a Town Protective claim


 * The second Random Mafia could vary, it is most likely a Blackmailer, because they would have heard the whisper from the Jailor to the Bodyguard, and told their Consort to role block the Bodyguard and Godfather attack the Jailor. It could also be a Consigliere, who investigated the Jailor, and told the Consort to role block the Bodyguard and Godfather to attack the Jailor.


 * If both Random Mafias were taken, then there is no Janitor, and hence Player Z must be a Jester since all three of his results are impossible.

Arguments against the Jailor's assumption: 

(These arguments are quite unlikely/weak)

* In the scenario with a Consort and a Consigliere/Blackmailer, there is a chance that the Consort could have been role blocking the Retributionist. This is a weak argument, however, since there is no way the Consigliere could have known as they investigated the Jailor on the first night, and the Blackmailer did not hear any Retributionist whispers.


 * In a rare scenario, the Random Mafias could be a Disguiser and Janitor. The Disguiser disguised as another player who claimed Bodyguard, and told his Mafia to attack the Jailor. Player Y was jailed and hence could not clean the Jailor.


 * Player Z  could be a poor Executioner, or the Arsonist pretending to be a jester or Executioner.


 * An Escort could have role blocked the Bodyguard whilst the Random Mafias would be Blackmailer/Consigliere who found the Jailor as well as Janitor.