Board Thread:Debate of The Week/@comment-30105631-20171210013838/@comment-32783587-20171210173149

team yes

if there are more evils then town, towns dead either way without a death of an evil. lets look at some scenarios. lets say theres one more evil than town the day after you shoot:

you shoot an evil: town still has a low chance of winning, but it is much easier because the mafia cant hang you right away in the day. chance of winning: maybe 25% with help of other town roles.

you shoot a town: you're definitely screwed. chance of winning: probably 0%.

you dont shoot: youre probably screwed, because if a jailor/tk doesnt kill 2 people or something, they can hang you right away. chance of winning: probably 5%..

so if  you dont shoot, its 5% chance of winning.

if you do shoot: the average of 25 and 0 is 12.5, so its better to shoot in this example. BUT WAIT! its not a 50% chance of shooting an evil! its more than that! so it would actually be above 12.5%

this is just approximations and one example: but it works for most other scenarios.

and this is just if its a shot in the dark. at least some scumreading ability can also increase that 12.5