Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-32994909-20180214163126/@comment-32994909-20180215001623

Thatsmuggamer got it correct, but his explaination was wrong so I could not give him credit.(sorry).

So if the Potion Master is lynched, there is no way Coven can win. If the Coven Leader attacks, he will die and the attack will fail. The Mayor would then simply lynch the Medusa.

If the Coven Leader does not attack, The Mayor would then simply lynch one of the Coven, and there would be no way to kill the Mayor with a trap on him.

So there is a 2/3 chance of the Potion Master being the one who was not lynched.

If the Potion Master does NOT get the necronomicon, it can...

- attack with the Coven Leader/Medusa if it has the attack Potion, the trap will only kill one of the attackers and hence the Mayor will die.

- heal the Coven Leader/Medusa whilst they attack, which would trigger the trap. The Mayor would then lynch only one of the two Coven, allowing Coven to kill the Mayor the following night.

- investigate the Mayor whilst the Coven Leader/Medusa does nothing, which would trigger the trap. The Mayor would then lynch only one of the two Coven, allowing Coven to kill the Mayor the following night.

If the Potion Master DOES get the necronomicon, it can...

- investigate the Mayor whilst the Medusa does nothing, which will trigger the trap. The Mayor will then lynch one of the two Coven, and then the surviving Coven will kill the Mayor at night.

So Coven has a chance of winning as long as the Potion Master is alive, making the odds 2/3.