Board Thread:Debate of The Week/@comment-28112409-20181230235210/@comment-27128035-20190111014526

@Vert

This is gonna be hard, especially since I agree with you on basically everything though I think WW is better than Jugg. But I'll argue that Arso is stronger than SK, even though I believe the contrary.

Arsonist is stronger than Serial Killer

First, let's summarize the advantages both NK roles have over each other:


 * Faster Killer
 * Can create a balance between Mafia and Town with more efficiency
 * Can fake as Arso (not really too useful, but I've seen SKs/WWs use this before)
 * Hitting a Witch doesn't threaten their life, whereas a douse would


 * Can kill immunes
 * If you get roleblocked/jailed, you aren't screwed
 * Invest results are better, can hide behind BG/doused claim
 * Appears NS to Sheriff investigations
 * Can use douses to fool Mafia (Consigliere invests)

What I'm going to do is prove that the advantages of Arsonist are more significant than the advantages of the Serial Killer. Let's begin.

Ability to Hide from Investigatives

When it comes to investigation immunity, Arsonist destroys the Serial Killer. It's all too much. First and foremost, a Sheriff can find a SK whereas an Arsonist is immune to such detection. And due to the 1 for 1 current meta (kill A, if B's wrong then jailor kill B), the SK will likely get killed immediately after accusation. There will be no "shut up exe" unless the SK can claim something like Transporter.

Let's move on to the Lookout. As you probably know, you won't find many games where someone doesn't ask for TP/LO. Considering your investigator claim (we will move on to that btw), the only thing you can claim is Doctor. But as SK, you won't be able to get away with a Doctor claim if you weren't on the requested client if a LO spots you. Now, I know it's not guaranteed for a LO + Invest combo to exist, but it's common enough where it can be considered that there's a good chance that such a combo could exist.

(1/4) + ((3/4) * (1/4)) + ((3/4)*(3/4)*(1/13))+ ((3/4)*(3/4)*(12/13)*(1/13)) + ((3/4)*(3/4)*(12/13)*(12/13)*(1/13)) = 56% chance of a LO spawning. Same with invest. My math is a bit flawed in that I didn't consider unique roles or if a TI slot is already chosen, but you get the idea; it's around 25%.

Even then, I'll acknowledge that this combo spawning doesn't mean that SK will get a death sentence, but the chances cannot be ignored.

Meanwhile, Arsonist can avoid these dangers. If someone asks your TP/LO, you just pay them a visit for a free douse anyways! And you aren't expected to be on the request the entire time anyways, so you don't need you visit them every night. Even then, LO might not visit request N2 because of WW. The only time you are really expected to be on the request is if they claim Jailor or something like that. In that case, either A, you douse someone else N2 (hoping LO doesn't visit them), or B, you can take a night off and claim you vested, or C, stay on the Jailor until LO dies. None of these strategies are perfect or optimal, but every role has its downsides.

Let's end this off with the Investigator. I don't want to say too much for this, but as the Arso, your claimspace is much bigger. You don't have to claim Bodyguard if found, you can claim doused as well. BG/Doc/LO/Spy claim topped on with LO confirmation will be a much stronger claim than the Doc (or Sheriff) claim for SK. Not saying that SK has to claim doc, but an Investigator will have a harder time ruining the Arso's day than the SK's.

'''You were hauled off to jail!/Someone occupied your night! You were roleblocked!'''

One of the problems with SK is hearing that gavel smack down for your guilty verdict when you've been roleblocked/jailed. It will definitely arouse suspicion on you, and if you can't come up with a convincing claim, people could find the justification to lynch you. You could talk your way out of it, but it isn't easy; maintaining your claim and fighting the suspicion will be difficult to deal with. Also, don't forget about Medium or "Retribrokenist" (as you call it).

Vote For Role/Process of Elimination/Counter-Claiming

I thought this was worth bringing up, as it's a large part of Ranked meta. Despite the immunity from investigatives, an Arsonist could still become suspicion under PoE/VFR. But the SK doesn't do better here, so my point still stands.

Doctor/Bodyguard Avoidance

This is worth mentioning, as the Arsonist has this advantage while the SK does not. This means the Arsonist is safer from death and his kills are always guaranteed.

Ability to Kill Important Town Roles

An Arsonist can kill an outted Jailor way easier than the SK. An Arso can douse/ignite Jailor in two nights where SK has to eliminate the TPs in order to do so.

Early-Game Balancing

In the beginning of the game, all the non-Town roles typically tend to have a common goal. That is to eliminate town majority. Though SK may be better at doing this, Arsonist can do so as well, and perhaps better in some ways. Often, TP/LO requestors are Townies (not always, but often), and you can douse them knowing you hit a likely townie. '''I can't prove this since it's from my observations. It's also been a while since I played, so if you disagree with my observations, feel free to discredit this point. '''Douse and ignite + Two Mafia kills eliminates Town majority (even though this might not always be the play). And don't tell me that Arsonist can hit Mafia/NE or Mafia can hit NE and thus a Town majority won't be dwindled. SK can do that too.

Late-Game Balancing

What happens after Town loses majority? How can Arsonist play against the Mafia? Witch/Jester will likely side with the Mafia since they would have a higher chance of winning (unless Mafia is short 2-3 members). It's not easy in that you have to play catch up with the Mafia, when SK can kill much faster. But that doesn't mean that you can't dwindle Mafia as well. Depending on how Mafia is playing, you may or may not decide to ignite N2. If Mafia is doing well (all 4 members alive), then just douse more people (douse the important Town claims and likely Mafia claims). Killing some Mafia and give you a much better end-game.

Or aside from making important dousing decisions, just ask the Town to help you once you know they can't win; they'll likely sympathize  SK too often uses this same tactic. SK's faster killing isn't as good as it sounds either, again, a lot of NEs side Mafia for survivability/victory. A lone townie could also bandwagon if Mafia makes a play (all a Mafia has to do is call you mafia and everyone can vote). Being able to balance Mafia and Town still isn't easy for SK when Mafia want him dead.

But I will admit that SK is better at this than Arsonist, but that doesn't mean it's impossible for the Arso to do this as well.

'''Conclusion


 * '''Arsonist has more survivability due to investigation immunity and better opportunities for claiming
 * Arsonist has higher survivability in that Escort/Jailor targetting you won't put a bounty on your head.
 * Arsonist is stronger in that it can kill immunes, and go through BG/Doc protections
 * Serial Killer's faster killing isn't as great as it sounds; it doesn't provide as great of an advantage than you think

NOTE:

I know for a lot of my argument, I speculated that the Mafia would know NK or that the Town would know Mafia or etc. But often in the middle-end game, it becomes more obvious to Town and Mafia alike of each others roles. I think such speculation can be justified.

______

Ngh, I don't like the way I presented my argument. Anyways, on to you Vert.