Board Thread:Debate of The Week/@comment-28112409-20171101070508/@comment-26234016-20171105203020

ProfessorArceus wrote: Addfire wrote: But the thing is, my calculations were for simple random chance. The fact that, just by closing your eyes and clicking a random button, on night two, you would be more likely to find an NK then to die from Typhus, is sorta bad. That may be an issue, but your own probability can be used against you here. It's like saying Vig is bad because it can kill 3/4 of the Mafia in 3 nights. It can, but probability says that it is unlikely. Therefore, the Vigilante is not considered overpowered; in fact it is the opposite because of this major drawback in killing the Town. With no drawback, however, it has this huge ability with no risk whatsoever. And that's the problem - the role is very difficult to balance without a complete rework.

Anyway, unfortunately, your own math doesn't prove your point. It really is a shame and, once again, kudos to you for doing it. It isn't like saying that at all, though. 1/10 isn't unlikely- it's fairly likely, actually. If a plague kills 1 out of 10 people, you are likely to die. (IDK why my mind is on plagues right now. Freudian slip?) And then the second half of your paragraph negates the first half- so what was your point? The mafia are still likely to find the werewolf/sk.