Talk:Pirate/@comment-25876622-20170601021957

How was this win formula determined? I came up with something different:

Binomial distribution with  "at least two kills":  P(X >= 2)  = 1 - P(X <= 1) = 1 - (B(n;1/3;0) + B(n;1/3;1)) =  (3^n - 2n-1) / (3^n)