Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-32994909-20180214163126/@comment-33307613-20180214213331

Scenario: The ​Coven Leader​ is lynched. The ​Potion Master​ inherits the Necronomicon. The ​Potion Master​ visits the with a non-attacking potion (springing the trap without a kill). The ​Mayor​ lynches any member. The remaining member attacks the.

The ​ wins. (1/3)

Scenario: The ​Potion Master​ is lynched. The ​Coven Leader​ attacks the ​Mayor​ and controls them into the ​Medusa​. The control itself has no effect due to the ​Mayor​ not being a visiting role. The ​Coven Leader​ dies to the trap. The ​Mayor​ lynches the ​Medusa​.

The ​Town​ wins. (1/3)

Scenario: The ​Medusa​ is lynched. The ​Coven Leader​ attacks the ​Mayor​ and controls them into any player (it doesn't matter). The ​Potion Master​ heals the ​Coven Leader​, protecting them from the trap. The ​Mayor​ lynches either player (it doesn't matter). The remaining ​Coven​ role attacks the ​Mayor​.

The ​Coven​ wins. (1/3)

In this last scenario, only 1 of the ​Potion Master​'s 3 potions will remain if one was used on all previous nights. If used randomly, there is only a 1/3 chance the heal potion is available. If the last potion remaining is a reveal potion, the ​Potion Master​ can investigate the ​Mayor​ (springing the trap without a kill), let the ​Mayor​ lynch any ​Coven​ member, and then attack the ​Mayor​. If there is only an attack potion, the game would end in a loss for the ​Coven​. That means the chance of having a potion that wins the game is 2/3. This means that the chance of a ​Coven​ victory is 4/9.