Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-32994909-20180214163126/@comment-33927649-20180214192803

Wait, I thought Medusa always got the Necronomicon last. Is this not true?

Well, assuming it is random the odds are:

1/3 Medusa gets voted-3 outcomes (2/3 chance PM can use heal/invest to remove trap) [4/18 win]

1/3 PM gets voted-3 outcomes (There is no way to remove the trap without dying) [0/18 win]

1/3 CL gets voted-6 outcomes

SUB CATEGORIES FROM CL [5/18 win]

-> 1/2 chance PM gets necro-3 outcomes (guaranteed win, PM can use heal or invest potion on mayor to remove trap, then coven kills next night) [3/3 win]

-> 1/2 chance Medusa gets necro-3 outcomes (2/3 chance PM can use invest/heal potion to remove trap) [2/3 win]

4/18+0/18+5/18=9/18=1/2

50% chance (if necro is random)

If necro is not random, and PM always gets the necro first, then it is a 55.55% chance.

If Medusa always gets the necro first it is a 44.44% chance.

YOU WERE ALL WRONG FOOLS!! LEARN PROBABILITY!!!