Board Thread:Debate of The Week/@comment-28112409-20171101070508/@comment-26234016-20171104200212

ProfessorArceus wrote: Addfire wrote: ProfessorArceus wrote: Addfire wrote: - A 1/7 (14%) chance to find an NK This post. I was referring to my earlier points about consort, but also (now that I think about it) a consigliere could do the same. So let's say... two roles could potentially do it, consig is more likely but I covered what's wrong with consig earlier, consort is less likely but also possible. Maybe I should restate that as a 1.5/7 (21%) chance? Eh, doesn't matter. Chance of a consig/consort rolling:

7 Mafia roles that can role in RM

2/7+2/7 (both slots) = 4/7

4/7 chance you get one (4/49 chance you get both, so let's assume you only get 1).

n1 - 1/3 of SK rolling; 1/14 chance of SK hitting them (let's ignore things like Trans, Witch, etc. for now), making it 1/42 chance of it dying. Let's say it doesn't die, then. It has a 1/11 chance of finding the SK that has a 1/3 chance to roll. That's now 1/33 chance of finding SK n1.

BUT, Mafia kills. Mafia has a 1/11 chance of hitting SK which rolls 1/3 times, making it 1/33 chance of finding SK through that.

tfw when you realise your math is wrong because you should've just done scenarios but you chose not to because you're lazy and now all your math is wrong I wasn't talking specifically about Serial Killer, I was talking about all NKs, but mostly SK and Werewolf.

2/3 chance of either SK or WW rolling

2/7 chance of getting Consig

1/11 of finding the NK through Consig n1, (2/33) + 1/11 chance of finding the NK through Mafia Killing (2/33) = 4/33.

Now, if the NK kills enough to average one kill per night (either a werewolf killing two people every two nights or a Serial Killer killing steadily), assuming that the TP in game doesn't do squat, and one person gets lynched each day, AND that every time the consig invests a non-NK the non-NK is lynched/killed AND that mafia kills steadily (once per night)  the chances  (BASED ON KPN, not actual killing) rise to:

4/27 n2, 4/23 n3, 4/20 n4, 4/17 n5, 4/14 n6, 4/11 n7, 4/8 n8, and 4/5 n9. I don't think a game continues past n9.

That's 14% n2, 17% n3, 20% n4, 23% n5, 28% n6, 36% n7, 50% n8, and 80% n9.

Which is fairly, but not extremely, worrying for the NK.

But that's assuming that the Consig's targets are immediately killed, which is unlikely.

I don't know the actual data on Consig targets getting killed, but it's safe to say that at least half of their targets aren't killed that night or day.

So now we have:

4/25 n2, 4/22 n3, 4/18 n4, 4/15 n5, 4/11 n6, 4/8 n7, 4/5 n8, and 4/2 n9. The denominator isn't surviving townies x chance of NK, it's surviving townies - invested townies x chance of NK.

That means:

16% n2, 18% n3, 22% n4, 26% n5, 36% n6, 50% n7, 80% n8, and a 100% chance by n9.

I think it's fair to say that that would be closer to extremely worrying.

Now, this is all assuming we have full mafia. Which is a problem in the calculations, but we also are assuming that the TIs don't learn anything, the TPs don't do anything, there isn't a witch or exe, etc. If someone wants to calculate based on TI, TP, witch, TKs, jailor, and exe, go ahead. That's all with Consigliere+Mafioso.

With the Consig, it's the same deal, except only on even numbered nights for ww.

Prof, you were just calculating for the first night, but as time goes on, the chances (obviously) increase.

That was tiring to do...