Board Thread:Debate of The Week/@comment-28112409-20181230235210/@comment-28112409-20190114150938

BobbytheBlobby wrote: Arguments for Arso being stronger. Aight big boi, let's have at it.

 Town Investigatives 

There's no argument against the Sheriff point, outright win for Arsonist. The LO + Invest combo point has a bit of exaggeration though. The chances of SK being threatened goes under "25%" since the investigator needs to actually visit the SK in order to limit his claimspace, which in itself is low as well. While you've already acknowledged how LO counters Arso, you've swept a few things under the rug.

The jailor meta is more prevalent than the simple tp/lo meta, because of the great success consistency the meta offers and how easily confirmed jailor is regardless of whether an Arsonist exists or not. As a result, competent towns will include a jailor revealing and asking for tp/lo, who is an absolute priority for all TPs involved since no one knows if a 2nd one exists and safety measures need to be taken. Consequently, you will definitely be expected to stay on the jailor for N1. You'd be suspicious if you didn't and that "56%" chance of the LO really acts up then, because your visit is guaranteed to be recorded by one should they be present.

Considering the jailor's importance, the jailor meta's prevalence, and the fact you're TP, you are actually expected to stay on his request until the 2nd TP is confirmed. The WW point for LO is weak as well, because jailor is still too important to leave and all the people visiting him is still valuable information, in addition to WWs realistically not visiting the jailor that commonly because of the potential BG threat that can end him right then and there especially in the early game where barely anything is confirmed aside from numerous claims.

Dousing someone else on N2 doesn't exactly mean anything for Arso after your name is written on the LO's will. You can either play the role like a nuke and wait to ignite everyone except yourself and someone else, or you play it like a shotgun and douse a person or two then ignite and then repeat the process or go for the winning ignition. Playing Arsonist like a nuke is not viable in Ranked, because you are not enabling the mafia as an NK and you are not contributing to the Town's loss of majority, meaning you're telling them openly "Hey guys, this is PetrolSniffer3274, I am dingus doofus and would like Town to kill everyone in fisticuffs and lynching galore at your discretion."

Once you're recorded on an LO's will visiting the Jailor, you're forced to play nuke Arso or you get killed. Nuke Arso in itself relies heavily on luck and almost never succeeds because you're letting the mafia get steamrolled while leaving Town barely fazed. Ultimately, both choices are terrible here after the LO catches you N1. The other 2 tactics do nothing to solve the main issue here either, none of the 3 you've mentioned are even decent tactics. They're all terrible, and they all lead to the Arsonist almost always losing.

Investigator having a harder time ruining Arso's day than SK? I don't think so, you've overlooked just how restricting claiming doused and claiming a role outside the investigation result is for Arso. If you claim doused, you have officially locked yourself into playing nuke Arso because there should be no way you can survive an ignition. If you ignite and you're still alive, you die. You can't claim doused on the same day the ignition occurs, and the claim is less and less believable the earlier it is in the game or the more recent your claim is after an ignition has occurred, and we've already clarified why the nuke Arso playstyle is devastating as it is. Investigator can ruin Arso just as easily as he can SK.

While SK is countered by the Sheriff, Investigator or the Invest + LO combo, Arsonist is countered by an LO, an Invest or an Invest + LO combo as well for reasons previously discussed. Doesn't seem like Arso destroying SK for this point, it's more like a sidegrade painted as some revolutionary advantage for Arso when it clearly isn't.

 SK's Doom vs. Arso's Doom 

Yes, Escorts and Jailors spell instant death most of the time for the SK, that's one of his flaws that are a guaranteed risk in every game. However, Arsonist also has a flaw that's a guaranteed downfall in every game as well.

An Arsonist's maximum average KPN in a game is always below 1 because of the inevitable ignition and the single douse per night. The Arsonist is always behind the SK in terms of killing consistency. This disadvantage is furthered by the fact that you need the Arsonist to be played like a shotgun to dispose of the jailor or to enable the mafia and not get all the evils including yourself steamrolled, which drops the KPN average further. The Arsonist is still as slow as ever because of this, and it harms his overall chances in every single game because he's always slower to kill compared to SK, which leaves the Town with more time and less obstructions.

But wait, there's more. I know the SK can have his kills wasted by Doctor and BG, something that Arsonist doesn't suffer from. However, under the jailor meta, protectives and their targets are more predictable and not as threatening as they're made out to be. The jailor is a sink for the TPs/LOs, meaning there will always be a hole in their defense that the SK can kill through without being harmed. The Arsonist is safer from death compared to an SK but saying his kills being always guaranteed is a horrid exaggeration to make.

Arsonist has a higher risk of having his kills and nights wasted compared to SK if anything. If you douse someone who died on the same night, that's a waste which is equal to SK's kill being wasted on someone killed by something else. It topples over on the Arsonist from here. If a doused person gets killed at night, a night of yours is a waste. If a doused person gets lynched, that's a night wasted. If you ignite and a person who's been ignited has been killed by something else as well, that's also a night wasted. None of these risks for wasting a night are role-specific, meaning they are to be faced in every single game just like an SK would with a protective or a jailor, and even the protective part is easily circumvented by the SK.

Couple the opportunities to waste nights with the sluggish killing, and Arsonist is at a much greater disadvantage than that BG/Doc immunity can cover up for. SK has less risk of wasting a night's kill in comparison.

(P.S I don't know why you brought up VFR/CC/PoE since it kind of affects all evils the same way.)

 In-game Performance 

Arsonists being able to kill the jailor right away isn't necessarily an advantage, considering the jailor meta and the "56%" chance of an LO appearing all in addition to the previous clarification of why the nuke Arso playstyle is still devastating for the win chances of all must-kill evils involved including ya boi, PetrolSniffer3274.

In contrast, the SK's methodology of winning is tearing down the majority that the Town possesses and it's not neccessarily unviable. Town can lose their majority in potentially 2 nights with the 2 KPN both Mafia and SK offer, just like Arso can. If SK can do exactly what an Arsonist can in the early game, then what advantage does Arso really possess here? None of note is the answer.

I was about to argue for the late game, until you admitted that SK was better at it anyway, making whatever argument I had pointless. I also don't want to do math because I had to do it for Crusader and Ambusher, and it took hours of my life that I am not getting back.

flips table

​​​​​​​In fuckyou-sion to your conclusion, the Arsonist's survivability point is correct except it's not because of investigation immunity or better claims, heck no. Arsonist's survivability against Jailor and Escort is true except Jailor plays a big part in fucking Arso over by utilizing a different method regardless. Arsonist is stronger in the sense that it bypasses defenses and isn't affected by protectives, until you realize there's a massive counterweight to that advantage provided in the form of the numerous opportunities to waste your nights and the fact that TPs are already pretty predictable in the jailor meta. SK's killing rate is definitely not that great in the context of a single person versing 13 others, until you look at Arso's existential kill consistency crisis that makes SK's KPN look like a sacred blessing from Hannibal Lecter.