Board Thread:Debate of The Week/@comment-28112409-20171018053338/@comment-33380803-20171022012803

DuckGamer123 wrote: It's rather hard to calculate Any for unique roles for town, so we'll just ignore them. It WILL add on to the town's chances of having town as Any so keep that in mind.

10 roles that are 100% Town.

7 roles that are 100% Mafia.

2 roles that will more often than not side with Town.(Neutral Benign)

1 role that is Neutral Chaos. Screws up town and kills mafia, so it's a different side.

2 roles that will most likely not side with town, and given the oppurtunity, side with Neutral Killing.

1 role that will kill whoever they please if they get lynched.

3 roles that are on their own, unless the neutral killing is themselves, except for the Werewolf, and that's 2/3 chance that they CAN be any.

12 vs 7 vs 1 vs 5.

Those are our chances.

Keep in mind though, that in our new list, that Mafia has 4 members, which I explain why this is needed a couple posts above. You don't want town to be demolished, so they removed any so that 5 mafia is impossible.

My calculations ignored the fact of unique roles. So I will redo them as best as i can, although obv there will be minor differences with things like vamps that i can’t calculate.

Town roles that are not unique: sherrif,inv,lo,spy,trans,esc,med,bg,doc,vig and well technically vamp hunter. Unique town roles: jailor,vet,mayor,ret, Unique mafia roles: gf,mafiaso Non-unique mafia roles: consig,bm,cons,jan,forger,disg,framer Unique nk roles: ww Non-unique nk roles: sk,arso Ne roles: witch,jest,exe Nb roles: amne,surv

Let’s start with town. Obv all the non-unique roles can appear in the any slot.So that is 10 town roles. There is a 50% chance that vet can appear in the any. There are 5 ts roles wiht two ts slots, and two of the ts roles are unique. Using duck’s table(which is amazing), there are twenty-three combinations. 13/23 have one unique role, and 1/23 have both unique roles. Let’s basically ignore that 1/23, because my brain will hurt too much trying to use that. So we will just make it 14/23 with one unique role. So 9/23 of the time the any can include mayor or ret. And 14/23 of the time the any can include either mayor or ret(depending on which one is already in game). So about 39% both roles can appear in game, so double 39 is 78%. And then 60% of the time one of the roles can appear in the any. So let’s add them up. We have 10 + 0.5 + 0.78 + 0.6 = 11.88 roles can appear. So almost 12.

Let’s do mafia. Oh that was easy, 7 roles exactly. Ne is equal to 3. Witch always sides wiht evils, so they get an extra number. My opinion on exe’s and jesters is that 3/4 of the time they side with evils. So town get’s an extra 0.5 roles and evils get an extra 1.5.

So far town = 12.38, evils(sides with mafia/nk) = 9.5

Nk’s: about 2.66666 considering that ww may appear as nk an therefore can’t be in the any slot.

And finally nb’s: 2 roles in any, with probably about 3/4 of the time skidding with town. So town get’s an extra 1.5, evils get 0.5.

Totals: town - 13.88,12.66666. Obviously technically neutral benigns and neutral evils can’t do as much to affect the opposing faction, so technically the roles could be lowered in terms of how useful the roles are.

Also, you might want to consider that nk’s aren’t wiht the mafia so you might say something like Town = 13.88 mafia = 9.75. Nk - 3.

Overall, i think town/town siding roles are greater then evil/evil siding roles. Which meant tat mafia used to be too up, which is the reason why they made the any a rando mmafia.

My brain hurts.