Board Thread:Debate of The Week/@comment-28112409-20171101070508/@comment-32881402-20171104173642

Addfire wrote: ProfessorArceus wrote: Addfire wrote:

- A 1/7 (14%) chance to find an NK This post. I was refferring to my earlier points about consort, but also (now that I think about it) a consigliere could do the same. So let's say... two roles could potentially do it, consig is more likely but I covered what's wrong with consig earlier, consort is less likely but also possible.

Maybe I should restate that as a 1.5/7 (21%) chance? Eh, doesn't matter. Chance of a consig/consort rolling:

7 Mafia roles that can role in RM

2/7+2/7 (both slots) = 4/7

4/7 chance you get one (4/49 chance you get both, so let's assume you only get 1).

n1 - 1/3 of SK rolling; 1/14 chance of SK hitting them (let's ignore things like Trans, Witch, etc. for now), making it 1/42 chance of it dying. Let's say it doesn't die, then. It has a 1/11 chance of finding the SK that has a 1/3 chance to roll. That's now 1/33 chance of finding SK n1.

BUT, Mafia kills. Mafia has a 1/11 chance of hitting SK which rolls 1/3 times, making it 1/33 chance of finding SK through that.

tfw when you realise your math is wrong because you should've just done scenarios but you chose not to because you're lazy and now all your math is wrong