Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-35877119-20180630134339/@comment-32994909-20180702183542

If the is lynched...

In this situation, it does not matter whether the has his vest or not.

The will not vest because they know that the  has a Powerful attack and it will bypass it.

The will not stay home as that is a bad idea, knowing the  will guard the, and the  will not watch anyone. So he has to risk being killed by the.

So, will have a 50% chance of winning, and the  will have a 50% chance of winning, depending on whether the  attacks the  and wins, or attack the  and gets killed.

If is lynched...

Assuming there is a 50% chance the still has a vest...

He may choose to use it because unlike the, the only has a basic attack, which can be defended against.

There is a 25% chance the will vest, and a 75% chance they will guard the.

This means the, depending on whether he attacks the or , has a ((25 x 0.5)) + (75 x 0.5)) = 50% chance of winning still.

So, if I had a vest, I would lynch the and then vest, as since the  is following my vote, it suggests that I come off as a more aggressive voter, which would encourage the  to attack me first.

So, lynch the then vest seems good.